Rebuttal to the Salt River Wild Horse Managment Group’s claim that the Vegetation Assessment 2025 is invalid (Spoiler alert: It is rigorous science) .

This response confronts the inaccurate statements about the validity of the Salt River Vegetation Assessment. As a researcher, scientist, and biostatistician, I know the report is completely valid. However, not everyone has my background, so I provided scholarly proof that this type of ASSESSMENT (note the lack of the words “research study‘) is completely valid and scientifically grounded. The University of Arizona is a prestigious institution that would not produce anything inferior or lacking in the proper scientific rigour, methodological standards, or ecological relevance expected of land-grant university research and Extension work. Below is the Rebuttal, as well as an academic review of the assessment below the rebuttal.

Certain advocacy groups are criticizing the University of Arizona’s April 2025 Vegetation Assessment of the Salt River Horse Management Area, with The Salt River Wild Horse Management Group topping the list. These groups dispute its legitimacy because it was not published in a peer-reviewed journal. The argument shows a fundamental failure to understand how ecological monitoring and land management operate within practical settings. Please read the first few paragraphs. Also of note, this is written by a non-scientist, with no formal research training most likely named Simone Van der Salm (Netherlands is not her real name). Ms Van der Salm is the president of the Salt River Wild Horse Management Group and ironically, Ms Van der Salm is NOT a United States citizen, perhaps why she is at ease disparaging the University of Arizona.


Professional range scientists and ecologists at the University of Arizona Cooperative Extension developed the technical field report, which serves as the vegetation assessment. The assessment provides documentation of actual conditions while guiding resource management choices and delivering scientifically sound data to stakeholders, including land agencies, tribal partners, and the general public.

The scientific validity of management-grade research does not depend on peer review processes. The assessment’s quality is independent of peer-reviewed publication status because this format is unnecessary for credibility. Technical reports, field surveys, and unpublished data serve as the foundation for timely decision-making in all land and wildlife agencies and the Bureau of Land Management and the Forest Service. These include:

  • Grazing permit evaluations
  • Drought response actions
  • Wildlife habitat management
  • Emergency ecological assessments

This “gray literature” constitutes the primary source of information for both National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) decision-making and agency decisions according to the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA).

The validity of work depends on different factors other than peer-review status.
The success of applied ecological work depends more on methodological rigor than on peer-review status. Standard sampling protocols (dry-weight rank, comparative yield), transparent site selection methods, and data collection procedures should be used.

  • Methodological rigor
  • Appropriate interpretation grounded in ecological science.
  • Clear documentation of findings.

The April 2025 assessment meets all of these criteria. The evaluation applied recognized vegetation assessment protocols, which combined dry-weight rank and comparative yield to document the distinct characteristics between grazing and non-grazing areas.

What motivations stem from these attacks against the assessment?
This report faces invalidation because of its non-journal publication status, but this argument lacks scientific-basis and demonstrates political dishonesty. This attack aims to deceive the public and decision-makers by equating essential research publications with field-based environmental assessments, although these represent entirely different approaches with separate objectives.

The application of this standard would render all the following assessments invalid:

  • Most agency-led rangeland evaluation
  • Federal wildlife habitat reports
  • Environmental impact assessments
  • Tribal ecological inventories
  • Emergency drought response protocols.

No serious scientist or land manager would accept that logic.


Continue reading →

Salt River Horses: A Call for Sustainable Management

The removal of three adults per foal born seemed extreme, so I decided to run some population projections in R-Studio. Using the SRWHMG’s end-of-2024 population (282), we calculated year by year how the population would be reduced if the three adults per one foal were implemented.

According to the SRWHMG Annual Report, there were 282 horses at the Salt River at the end of 2024. We added a modest amount (ten) to account for foals and possible reservation horses. Using this number, we will predict the population over the next ten years, accounting for average use PZP, supplemental feeding, migration of reservation horses, and drought conditions predicted for Arizona for the next ten years.

The Salt River horse population over the next 10 years, incorporating:

  • Starting population: 292 horses (end of 2024)
  • PZP efficacy: average (assume 75%)
  • Foaling rate: 1 foal per fertile mare per year
  • Mortality rate: 6% (slightly elevated to account for drought conditions despite supplemental feeding)
  • Removals: 3 adult horses removed for every foal born
  • Reproductive mares: 50% female × 70% of those of reproductive age = 35% of population
  • Migrants: Neighboring Reservation Horses can move back and forth in and out of the Salt River territory. They must be accounted for, and we utilized random movement. We made calculations with and without migrants. For the purposes of this dataset, we will make the reservation horses non-breeding, although they may not be treated with PZP, and therefore fertile.

For the nerds amongst you… here is the R Code

©drmeredithhudes-lowder, all rights reserved 2025


In 2019, the Salt River Horse Collaborative was formed and the members sought to mange the horses in the Tonto National Forest. Special interest groups and government agents were included.
The Salt River Horse Collaborative was established to develop a long-term management plan for the Salt River wild horses in Arizona’s Tonto National Forest. Facilitated by the U.S. Institute for Environmental Conflict Resolution and CONCUR, Inc., the Collaborative included a range of stakeholders:

Wild Horse Advocacy Groups: Such as the Salt River Wild Horse Management Group (SRWHMG) and the American Wild Horse Campaign (AWHC), both of which emphasised humane, non-lethal management strategies
Federal, State, and Local Agencies: Notably, the U.S. Forest Service and the Arizona Department of Agriculture.
Neighbouring Tribes: Tribal representatives from adjacent communities.
Conservation Organizations: Including the Center for Biological Diversity, which advocated for significant reductions in the horse population to protect native ecosystems.
Ranching and Hunting Interests: Groups concerned about land use and resource competition.

According to the report from the Salt River Horse Collaborative Meeting, the land can only support 28-44 horses. However, the majority of the parties involved agreed that 100 horses were sustainable. Please read the full report in the download below. However, none of this effort has been put into practice yet.

CONCUR, Inc., & Keith Mattson, LLC. (2019, December 18). Salt River Horse Collaborative Final Report. Prepared for the U.S. Institute for Environmental Conflict Resolution.

Revisiting this graphic below, we find that the horses, assuming no reservation horses ever set foot on the Salt River, would be at the recommended 100 horses by approximately 2028. The RFP states that if a horse leaves the management area, it will be removed upon its return to the Salt River. It also includes fence maintenance which neatly solves the issue of reservation horses




Dr. Meredith Hudes-Lowder
May 5, 2025